Lightweight
5 Rounds
Max Holloway won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, July 19, 2025·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, USA
Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(54.0%)
Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Max Holloway has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Max Holloway
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Poirier
Blue Corner
-122
(55%)
Vegas Odds
-104
(51%)
34
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'9"
175.26 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Max HollowayL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Arnold Allen · Apr 23W
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Aug 23W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26Dustin Poirier
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 21W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Max HollowayMetricDustin Poirier
6.91
Strikes / min
5.24
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
58%
Strike defense
52%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
1.15
81%
Takedown defense
64%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.30Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Max HollowayDustin Poirier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Max Holloway(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-147.0147.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Max Holloway
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights32
Dustin Poirier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31