Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Melissa Croden won · Decision R3
Elo1501
Elo1510
Melissa CrodenvsDaria Zhelezniakova
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Saturday, April 18, 2026Winnipeg, Canada
Style matchup
Model Prediction: Melissa Croden wins(50.8%)
Scouting Report
- Melissa Croden has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Melissa Croden
Daria Zhelezniakova
—
Vegas Odds
—
1501
1510
35
30
Orthodox
Orthodox
5'9"
5'9"
172.72 cm
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Melissa Croden
oldest →
KOvs Tainara Lisboa · Oct 25
vs Luana Santos · Dec 25
latestDaria Zhelezniakova
oldest →
vs Montserrat Rendon · Mar 24
SUBvs Ailin Perez · Sep 24
vs Melissa Mullins · Jun 25
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Melissa CrodenMetricDaria Zhelezniakova
4.27
Strikes / min
4.13
2.13
Strikes absorbed / min
3.38
59%
Strike defense
64%
2.02
TDs / 15 min
0.31
66%
Takedown defense
50%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Melissa CrodenDaria Zhelezniakova
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Melissa Croden
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights2
Daria Zhelezniakova
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights3