Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Luana Santos won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 13, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMelissa Croden: WrestlervsLuana Santos: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Melissa Croden wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Luana Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Luana Santos has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Melissa Croden
Red Corner
VS
Luana Santos
Blue Corner
+116
(46%)
Vegas Odds
-136
(58%)
35
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Melissa Croden
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tainara Lisboa · Oct 25Luana Santos
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Juliana Miller · Aug 23W
vs Stephanie Egger · Dec 23W
SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Jul 24L
vs Casey O'Neill · Aug 24W
SUBvs Tainara Lisboa · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Melissa CrodenMetricLuana Santos
4.27
Strikes / min
2.99
2.13
Strikes absorbed / min
2.93
59%
Strike defense
63%
2.02
TDs / 15 min
2.17
66%
Takedown defense
85%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.14Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+0.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Melissa CrodenLuana Santos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Melissa Croden(2 fights)Luana Santos(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-27.627.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-154.0154.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Melissa Croden
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights2
Luana Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights6