Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Melissa Croden won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 18, 2025·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Melissa Croden wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Melissa Croden wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Melissa Croden is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Tainara Lisboa has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Melissa Croden has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Melissa Croden
Red Corner
VS
Tainara Lisboa
Blue Corner
-132
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+112
(47%)
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Melissa Croden
oldest →latest
L
vs Luana Santos · Dec 25Tainara Lisboa
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jessica-Rose Clark · May 23W
vs Ravena Oliveira · Oct 23L
SUBvs Luana Santos · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Melissa CrodenMetricTainara Lisboa
4.27
Strikes / min
2.01
2.13
Strikes absorbed / min
2.88
59%
Strike defense
45%
2.02
TDs / 15 min
1.67
66%
Takedown defense
53%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.14Δ 3.01 — meaningful gap-0.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Melissa CrodenTainara Lisboa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Melissa Croden(2 fights)Tainara Lisboa(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.714.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
Melissa Croden
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights2
Tainara Lisboa
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights4