Featherweight
3 Rounds
Melquizael Costa won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 13, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMelquizael Costa: WrestlervsMorgan Charriere: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Melquizael Costa wins(53.5%)
Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Melquizael Costa enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Morgan Charriere is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Melquizael Costa has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Morgan Charriere has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Melquizael Costa
Red Corner
VS
Morgan Charriere
Blue Corner
-164
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+138
(42%)
29
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Melquizael CostaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 24W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25W
KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26Morgan Charriere
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Manolo Zecchini · Sep 23L
vs Chepe Mariscal · Apr 24W
KOvs Gabriel Miranda · Sep 24L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Mar 25W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Melquizael CostaMetricMorgan Charriere
4.38
Strikes / min
4.02
2.97
Strikes absorbed / min
4.51
54%
Strike defense
53%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
2.06
58%
Takedown defense
83%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.41Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Melquizael CostaMorgan Charriere
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Melquizael Costa(9 fights)Morgan Charriere(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+31.7-31.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Melquizael Costa
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9
Morgan Charriere
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6