Featherweight
3 Rounds
Melquizael Costa won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 15, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMelquizael Costa: WrestlervsShayilan Nuerdanbieke: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Melquizael Costa wins(50.6%)
Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Melquizael Costa enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Melquizael Costa has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Melquizael Costa
Red Corner
VS
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Blue Corner
-238
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
29
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Melquizael CostaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25W
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25W
KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
oldest →latest
L
vs Josh Culibao · May 21W
vs Sean Soriano · Nov 21W
vs TJ Brown · Jun 22W
KOvs Darrick Minner · Nov 22L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Apr 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Melquizael CostaMetricShayilan Nuerdanbieke
4.38
Strikes / min
1.95
2.97
Strikes absorbed / min
2.64
54%
Strike defense
50%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
3.30
58%
Takedown defense
28%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.41Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap-0.69
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Melquizael CostaShayilan Nuerdanbieke
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Melquizael Costa(9 fights)Shayilan Nuerdanbieke(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-29.329.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-245.0245.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Melquizael Costa
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6