Lightweight
3 Rounds
Melvin Guillard won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, January 22, 2011·Killeen, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupMelvin Guillard: Well-roundedvsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Melvin Guillard wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Melvin Guillard wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Melvin Guillard
Red Corner
VS
Evan Dunham
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-225
(69%)
43
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Melvin Guillard
oldest →latest
W
vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12L
vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12W
KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13L
vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14Evan DunhamL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Melvin GuillardMetricEvan Dunham
2.96
Strikes / min
5.33
1.85
Strikes absorbed / min
3.54
66%
Strike defense
61%
1.30
TDs / 15 min
1.82
61%
Takedown defense
79%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.11evenly matched on net striking+1.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Melvin GuillardEvan Dunham
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+38.0-38.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Melvin Guillard
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17