Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jamie Varner won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 29, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMelvin Guillard: Well-roundedvsJamie Varner: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Jamie Varner wins(51.1%)
Actual result: Jamie Varner wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jamie Varner enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Melvin Guillard
Red Corner
VS
Jamie Varner
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
43
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Melvin Guillard
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 12W
vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12W
KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13L
vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14Jamie VarnerL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Aug 12L
vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13L
KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14L
KOvs James Krause · May 14L
SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Melvin GuillardMetricJamie Varner
2.96
Strikes / min
2.92
1.85
Strikes absorbed / min
2.55
66%
Strike defense
58%
1.30
TDs / 15 min
3.49
61%
Takedown defense
66%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.11evenly matched on net striking+0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Melvin GuillardJamie Varner
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Jamie Varner(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+26.5-26.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
Melvin Guillard
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11
Jamie Varner
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7