Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Lauzon won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 8, 2011·Houston, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupMelvin Guillard: Well-roundedvsJoe Lauzon: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Melvin Guillard wins(54.9%)
Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Melvin Guillard has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Melvin Guillard has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Melvin Guillard
Red Corner
VS
Joe Lauzon
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+435
(19%)
43
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Melvin Guillard
oldest →latest
W
vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12L
vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12W
KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13L
vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14Joe Lauzon
oldest →latest
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Melvin GuillardMetricJoe Lauzon
2.96
Strikes / min
2.84
1.85
Strikes absorbed / min
5.39
66%
Strike defense
54%
1.30
TDs / 15 min
2.39
61%
Takedown defense
54%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.11Δ 3.66 — meaningful gap-2.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Melvin GuillardJoe Lauzon
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Joe Lauzon(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+51.6-51.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-6.06.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
Melvin Guillard
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11
Joe Lauzon
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20