Lightweight
3 Rounds
Paddy Pimblett won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 12, 2025·Miami, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Chandler: Pressure fightervsPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Paddy Pimblett wins(50.5%)
Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chandler has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Michael Chandler
Red Corner
VS
Paddy Pimblett
Blue Corner
+142
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-168
(63%)
40
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChandlerL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 21L
vs Justin Gaethje · Nov 21W
KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 22L
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22L
vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24Paddy Pimblett
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Jul 22W
vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22W
vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23W
SUBvs King Green · Jul 24L
vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChandlerMetricPaddy Pimblett
4.04
Strikes / min
5.49
4.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.89
43%
Strike defense
42%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
0.69
61%
Takedown defense
44%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.48Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+1.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael ChandlerPaddy Pimblett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chandler(7 fights)Paddy Pimblett(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-103.2103.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.81.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Michael Chandler
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7
Paddy Pimblett
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8