Lightweight
3 Rounds
Michael Chandler won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, May 7, 2022·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Chandler: Pressure fightervsTony Ferguson: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Michael Chandler wins(58.6%)
Actual result: Michael Chandler wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chandler enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Michael Chandler
Red Corner
VS
Tony Ferguson
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
40
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChandlerL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 21L
vs Justin Gaethje · Nov 21L
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22L
vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24L
KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Apr 25Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Beneil Dariush · May 21L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChandlerMetricTony Ferguson
4.04
Strikes / min
4.91
4.52
Strikes absorbed / min
4.37
43%
Strike defense
55%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
0.39
61%
Takedown defense
66%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.48Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael ChandlerTony Ferguson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chandler(7 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-157.4157.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-175.0175.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Michael Chandler
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24