Lightweight
3 Rounds
Michael Chiesa won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 23, 2013·Anaheim, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(55.8%)
Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Anton Kuivanen has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Anton Kuivanen has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael Chiesa
Red Corner
VS
Anton Kuivanen
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
38
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'8"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26Anton Kuivanen
oldest →latest
L
vs Justin Salas · Feb 12W
vs Mitch Clarke · Jul 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricAnton Kuivanen
2.02
Strikes / min
2.27
1.73
Strikes absorbed / min
1.63
57%
Strike defense
67%
3.11
TDs / 15 min
1.20
65%
Takedown defense
71%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.64
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael ChiesaAnton Kuivanen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Anton Kuivanen(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.5-18.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+50.0-50.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Michael Chiesa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22
Anton Kuivanen
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3