Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jorge Masvidal won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, July 27, 2013·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(57.9%)
Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael Chiesa
Red Corner
VS
Jorge Masvidal
Blue Corner
+255
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-280
(74%)
38
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26Jorge MasvidalL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21L
vs Colby Covington · Mar 22L
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricJorge Masvidal
2.02
Strikes / min
4.05
1.73
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
57%
Strike defense
64%
3.11
TDs / 15 min
1.38
65%
Takedown defense
72%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29evenly matched on net striking+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael ChiesaJorge Masvidal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.6-15.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Michael Chiesa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22
Jorge Masvidal
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights22