Welterweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Holland won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 29, 2023·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(50.6%)
Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Kevin Holland threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
- Kevin Holland has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Michael Chiesa
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Holland
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
38
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
205.74 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Sean Brady · Nov 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26Kevin HollandL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Jan 25W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25W
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25L
vs Mike Malott · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricKevin Holland
2.02
Strikes / min
4.24
1.73
Strikes absorbed / min
3.21
57%
Strike defense
50%
3.11
TDs / 15 min
0.79
65%
Takedown defense
57%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29evenly matched on net striking+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael ChiesaKevin Holland
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.7-1.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+504.0-504.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Michael Chiesa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22
Kevin Holland
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights27