Lightweight
5 Rounds
Kevin Lee won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Sunday, June 25, 2017·Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsKevin Lee: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(56.2%)
Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Kevin Lee has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael Chiesa
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Lee
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
38
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
190.5 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26Kevin LeeL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21L
SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricKevin Lee
2.02
Strikes / min
3.88
1.73
Strikes absorbed / min
3.60
57%
Strike defense
50%
3.11
TDs / 15 min
3.18
65%
Takedown defense
75%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael ChiesaKevin Lee
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-18.218.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+329.0-329.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.71.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Michael Chiesa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22
Kevin Lee
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19