Lightweight
3 Rounds
Michael Chiesa won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 4, 2015·Fairfax, Virginia, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(58.7%)
Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Mitch Clarke threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
- Michael Chiesa has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Michael Chiesa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael Chiesa
Red Corner
VS
Mitch Clarke
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
38
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26Mitch ClarkeL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Anton Kuivanen · Jul 12W
vs John Maguire · Jun 13W
SUBvs Al Iaquinta · May 14L
SUBvs Joe Duffy · Jul 16L
KOvs Alex White · Sep 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricMitch Clarke
2.02
Strikes / min
2.35
1.73
Strikes absorbed / min
3.27
57%
Strike defense
47%
3.11
TDs / 15 min
0.64
65%
Takedown defense
50%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael ChiesaMitch Clarke
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Mitch Clarke(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+27.6-27.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-104.0104.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Michael Chiesa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22
Mitch Clarke
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7