Welterweight
3 Rounds
Michael Chiesa won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 28, 2026·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsNiko Price: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(61.2%)
Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Niko Price enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Michael Chiesa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael Chiesa
Red Corner
VS
Niko Price
Blue Corner
-901
(90%)
Vegas Odds
+550
(15%)
38
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Sean Brady · Nov 21L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25Niko PriceL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 23W
vs Alex Morono · Jun 24L
vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24L
SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25L
KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricNiko Price
2.02
Strikes / min
5.11
1.73
Strikes absorbed / min
5.57
57%
Strike defense
48%
3.11
TDs / 15 min
1.06
65%
Takedown defense
50%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael ChiesaNiko Price
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Niko Price(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+143.2-143.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+238.0-238.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Michael Chiesa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22
Niko Price
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19