Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Sean Brady threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
- Sean Brady has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26 Sean Brady
oldest →W
SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 23W
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24W
SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25L
KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25W
DECvs Joaquin Buckley · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricSean Brady
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.29Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+1.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Michael ChiesaSean Brady
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Sean Brady(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +7.2|Blue -7.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -154.0|Blue +154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael ChiesaTargetSean Brady
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sean Brady edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:43Control
Round 2Sean Brady edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:14
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:41Control
Round 3Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:39
3Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:21Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
