Lightweight
3 Rounds
Clay Guida won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, February 6, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsClay Guida: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(53.7%)
Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Michael Johnson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Clay Guida
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
39
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'7"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael Johnson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael JohnsonMetricClay Guida
4.27
Strikes / min
2.63
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
58%
Strike defense
61%
0.57
TDs / 15 min
3.10
81%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael JohnsonClay Guida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Johnson(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-11.711.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+38.0-38.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Michael Johnson
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights32
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27