Lightweight
3 Rounds
Michael Johnson won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Friday, October 5, 2012·Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(53.9%)
Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Michael Johnson has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Danny Castillo
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
39
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael Johnson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26Danny CastilloL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15L
vs Jim Miller · Jul 15L
vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael JohnsonMetricDanny Castillo
4.27
Strikes / min
2.57
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
1.96
58%
Strike defense
62%
0.57
TDs / 15 min
2.95
81%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael JohnsonDanny Castillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Johnson(10 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-31.131.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Michael Johnson
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights32
Danny Castillo
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights14