Lightweight
5 Rounds
Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Friday, July 7, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(66.6%)
Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Justin Gaethje
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
39
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael Johnson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael JohnsonMetricJustin Gaethje
4.27
Strikes / min
6.48
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
7.05
58%
Strike defense
51%
0.57
TDs / 15 min
0.33
81%
Takedown defense
74%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.49Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael JohnsonJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Johnson(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+50.0-50.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.847.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.949.9
Michael Johnson
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights32
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15