Lightweight
3 Rounds
Nate Diaz won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 19, 2015·Orlando, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsNate Diaz: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(50.8%)
Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Michael Johnson has lost 31% of fights by sub.
- Michael Johnson has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Michael Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Nate Diaz
Blue Corner
-360
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
39
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael Johnson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael JohnsonMetricNate Diaz
4.27
Strikes / min
4.57
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
58%
Strike defense
52%
0.57
TDs / 15 min
1.05
81%
Takedown defense
41%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael JohnsonNate Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Johnson(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+40.9-40.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-238.0238.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Michael Johnson
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights32
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18