Lightweight
3 Rounds
Paul Sass won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 1, 2011·Washington, DC, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(60.7%)
Actual result: Paul Sass wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Sass threatens submissions; Michael Johnson has lost 31% of fights by sub.
- Michael Johnson has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Paul Sass
Blue Corner
-173
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+163
(38%)
39
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael Johnson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26Paul SassL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Mark Holst · Oct 10W
SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · May 12L
SUBvs Matt Wiman · Sep 12L
vs Danny Castillo · Feb 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael JohnsonMetricPaul Sass
4.27
Strikes / min
0.53
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
1.90
58%
Strike defense
51%
0.57
TDs / 15 min
0.53
81%
Takedown defense
33%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
7.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.49Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap-1.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael JohnsonPaul Sass
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Johnson(10 fights)Paul Sass(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.516.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-253.0253.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Michael Johnson
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights32
Paul Sass
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5