Lightweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Moises won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Wednesday, May 13, 2020·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsThiago Moises: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Thiago Moises wins(53.2%)
Actual result: Thiago Moises wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Johnson has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Thiago Moises
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
39
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael Johnson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26Thiago Moises
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24W
vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael JohnsonMetricThiago Moises
4.27
Strikes / min
2.52
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
4.40
58%
Strike defense
52%
0.57
TDs / 15 min
1.37
81%
Takedown defense
52%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.49Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap-1.88
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael JohnsonThiago Moises
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Johnson(10 fights)Thiago Moises(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+26.4-26.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Michael Johnson
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights32
Thiago Moises
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15