Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Michael McDonald won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 19, 2011·San Jose, California, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael McDonald: Submission grapplervsAlex Soto: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Michael McDonald wins(79.9%)
Actual result: Michael McDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael McDonald has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alex Soto (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael McDonald
Red Corner
VS
Alex Soto
Blue Corner
-410
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+365
(22%)
35
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael McDonald
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Feb 13W
SUBvs Brad Pickett · Aug 13L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 13W
SUBvs Masanori Kanehara · Jan 16L
KOvs John Lineker · Jul 16Alex Soto
oldest →latest
L
vs Francisco Rivera · May 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael McDonaldMetricAlex Soto
2.69
Strikes / min
2.95
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
5.02
57%
Strike defense
59%
1.09
TDs / 15 min
2.82
52%
Takedown defense
0%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 2.00 — meaningful gap-2.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael McDonaldAlex Soto
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael McDonald(9 fights)Alex Soto(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.0-32.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.348.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.149.1
Michael McDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9
Alex Soto
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach—
Fights2