Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Michael McDonald won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 28, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael McDonald: Submission grapplervsChris Cariaso: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Michael McDonald wins(71.2%)
Actual result: Michael McDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
- Michael McDonald has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Michael McDonald
Red Corner
VS
Chris Cariaso
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+340
(23%)
35
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'3"
177.8 cm
Reach
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael McDonald
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Feb 13W
SUBvs Brad Pickett · Aug 13L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 13W
SUBvs Masanori Kanehara · Jan 16L
KOvs John Lineker · Jul 16Chris CariasoL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14W
vs Louis Smolka · May 14L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14L
vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15L
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael McDonaldMetricChris Cariaso
2.69
Strikes / min
3.35
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
2.23
57%
Strike defense
61%
1.09
TDs / 15 min
1.11
52%
Takedown defense
57%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap+1.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael McDonaldChris Cariaso
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael McDonald(9 fights)Chris Cariaso(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-63.063.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Michael McDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9
Chris Cariaso
StanceSouthpaw
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights13