Welterweight
3 Rounds
Michael Morales won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 18, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMichael Morales: Well-roundedvsJake Matthews: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Michael Morales wins(62.9%)
Actual result: Michael Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Michael Morales has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Michael Morales has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Michael Morales
Red Corner
VS
Jake Matthews
Blue Corner
-360
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
26
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
200.66 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael MoralesW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Adam Fugitt · Jul 22W
vs Max Griffin · Jul 23W
KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 24W
KOvs Gilbert Burns · May 25W
KOvs Sean Brady · Nov 25Jake Matthews
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Darrius Flowers · Jul 23W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael MoralesMetricJake Matthews
5.68
Strikes / min
3.34
3.26
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
53%
Strike defense
60%
1.04
TDs / 15 min
1.44
89%
Takedown defense
64%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.42Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael MoralesJake Matthews
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Morales(7 fights)Jake Matthews(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-27.727.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+28.0-28.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Michael Morales
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights7
Jake Matthews
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights23