Welterweight
3 Rounds
Michael Page won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 21, 2026·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Michael Page wins(56.0%)
Actual result: Michael Page wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Patterson enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Michael Page has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Michael Page has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Page (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Michael Page
Red Corner
VS
Sam Patterson
Blue Corner
-178
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+144
(41%)
39
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael PageW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 24L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Jun 24W
vs Shara Magomedov · Feb 25W
vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 25Sam PattersonW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Yanal Ashmouz · Mar 23W
SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24W
SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24W
KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25W
KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael PageMetricSam Patterson
2.28
Strikes / min
2.62
1.51
Strikes absorbed / min
3.06
62%
Strike defense
50%
0.19
TDs / 15 min
0.82
70%
Takedown defense
33%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.77Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Michael PageSam Patterson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Page(5 fights)Sam Patterson(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-4.34.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
Michael Page
StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights5
Sam Patterson
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights6