Welterweight
3 Rounds
Miguel Baeza won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 12, 2019·Tampa, Florida, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Miguel Baeza wins(69.1%)
Actual result: Miguel Baeza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Hector Aldana has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Miguel Baeza has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Miguel Baeza
Red Corner
VS
Hector Aldana
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
33
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Miguel BaezaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Takashi Sato · Nov 20L
vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 21L
KOvs Khaos Williams · Nov 21L
KOvs Andre Fialho · Apr 22L
vs Punahele Soriano · Jun 24Hector AldanaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Song Kenan · Jun 18L
vs Laureano Staropoli · Nov 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Miguel BaezaMetricHector Aldana
4.09
Strikes / min
3.59
5.92
Strikes absorbed / min
5.08
46%
Strike defense
59%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
0.93
54%
Takedown defense
0%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.83evenly matched on net striking-1.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Miguel BaezaHector Aldana
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Miguel Baeza(7 fights)Hector Aldana(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+35.2-35.2
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+48.7-48.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
Miguel Baeza
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7
Hector Aldana
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3