Welterweight
3 Rounds
Miguel Baeza won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, May 16, 2020·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupMiguel Baeza: Pressure fightervsMatt Brown: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(53.6%)
Actual result: Miguel Baeza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Miguel Baeza has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tale of the Tape
Miguel Baeza
Red Corner
VS
Matt Brown
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
33
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Miguel BaezaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Takashi Sato · Nov 20L
vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 21L
KOvs Khaos Williams · Nov 21L
KOvs Andre Fialho · Apr 22L
vs Punahele Soriano · Jun 24Matt Brown
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Dec 19L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Miguel BaezaMetricMatt Brown
4.09
Strikes / min
3.76
5.92
Strikes absorbed / min
2.92
46%
Strike defense
55%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
1.68
54%
Takedown defense
63%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.83Δ 2.67 — meaningful gap+0.84
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Miguel BaezaMatt Brown
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Miguel Baeza(7 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-35.435.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+63.0-63.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Miguel Baeza
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7
Matt Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25