Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Danilo Marques won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, February 6, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMike Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsDanilo Marques: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Danilo Marques wins(54.7%)
Actual result: Danilo Marques wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mike Rodriguez is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Danilo Marques has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Danilo Marques threatens submissions; Mike Rodriguez has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Danilo Marques has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mike Rodriguez has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mike Rodriguez (53.5%).
- Mike Rodriguez has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Mike Rodriguez
Red Corner
VS
Danilo Marques
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+188
(35%)
37
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'6"
208.28 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mike RodriguezL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Adam Milstead · Dec 18L
vs Da Un Jung · Dec 19W
KOvs Marcin Prachnio · Aug 20L
SUBvs Ed Herman · Sep 20L
vs Tafon Nchukwi · Sep 21Danilo MarquesL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Khadis Ibragimov · Sep 20L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jun 21L
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Feb 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mike RodriguezMetricDanilo Marques
4.35
Strikes / min
1.44
4.24
Strikes absorbed / min
2.52
41%
Strike defense
52%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.93
37%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.11Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-1.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mike RodriguezDanilo Marques
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mike Rodriguez(7 fights)Danilo Marques(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-27.727.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Mike Rodriguez
StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights7
Danilo Marques
StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4