Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Roy Nelson won
UFC Event·Saturday, October 29, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Mirko Cro Cop wins(65.1%)
Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mirko Cro Cop (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Mirko Cro Cop
Red Corner
VS
Roy Nelson
Blue Corner
+190
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
37
Age
49
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mirko Cro Cop
oldest →latest
W
vs Pat Barry · Jun 10L
vs Frank Mir · Sep 10L
vs Brendan Schaub · Mar 11W
vs Gabriel Gonzaga · Apr 15Roy Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mirko Cro CopMetricRoy Nelson
—
Strikes / min
2.18
—
Strikes absorbed / min
4.79
—
Strike defense
46%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.14
—
Takedown defense
65%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mirko Cro CopRoy Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mirko Cro Cop(5 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+70.0-70.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Mirko Cro Cop
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18