Lightweight
3 Rounds
John Cholish won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 10, 2011·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: John Cholish wins(58.7%)
Actual result: John Cholish wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mitch Clarke enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Mitch Clarke threatens submissions; John Cholish has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- John Cholish has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- John Cholish has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Mitch Clarke
Red Corner
VS
John Cholish
Blue Corner
+315
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-345
(78%)
40
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mitch ClarkeL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs John Maguire · Jun 13W
SUBvs Al Iaquinta · May 14L
vs Michael Chiesa · Apr 15L
SUBvs Joe Duffy · Jul 16L
KOvs Alex White · Sep 17John CholishL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Danny Castillo · May 12L
SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mitch ClarkeMetricJohn Cholish
2.35
Strikes / min
2.65
3.27
Strikes absorbed / min
2.29
47%
Strike defense
73%
0.64
TDs / 15 min
1.82
50%
Takedown defense
78%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.92Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.36
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mitch Clarke(7 fights)John Cholish(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Mitch Clarke
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7
John Cholish
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3