Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Cole Smith won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 4, 2019·Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupMitch Gagnon: Submission grapplervsCole Smith: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Mitch Gagnon wins(69.6%)
Actual result: Cole Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mitch Gagnon has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mitch Gagnon has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Mitch Gagnon
Red Corner
VS
Cole Smith
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
41
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'11"
165.1 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mitch GagnonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Dustin Kimura · Sep 13W
vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14L
vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16Cole SmithL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Miles Johns · Sep 19L
vs Hunter Azure · Sep 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mitch GagnonMetricCole Smith
2.76
Strikes / min
1.78
2.21
Strikes absorbed / min
1.96
61%
Strike defense
49%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
1.67
65%
Takedown defense
45%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mitch GagnonCole Smith
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Cole Smith(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.8-14.8
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.648.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Mitch Gagnon
StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8
Cole Smith
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3