Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Matthew Lopez won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 10, 2016·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupMitch Gagnon: Submission grapplervsMatthew Lopez: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Mitch Gagnon wins(57.6%)
Actual result: Matthew Lopez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matthew Lopez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matthew Lopez has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Mitch Gagnon
Red Corner
VS
Matthew Lopez
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
41
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'5"
Height
5'7"
165.1 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mitch GagnonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Dustin Kimura · Sep 13W
vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14L
vs Cole Smith · May 19Matthew LopezL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Jul 16W
KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Jun 17L
KOvs Raphael Assuncao · Nov 17L
KOvs Alejandro Perez · Apr 18L
vs Brad Katona · Dec 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mitch GagnonMetricMatthew Lopez
2.76
Strikes / min
3.13
2.21
Strikes absorbed / min
3.73
61%
Strike defense
55%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
3.32
65%
Takedown defense
71%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.55Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-0.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mitch GagnonMatthew Lopez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Matthew Lopez(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+46.4-46.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+571.0-571.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Mitch Gagnon
StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8
Matthew Lopez
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6