Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Mitch Gagnon won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 22, 2012·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Mitch Gagnon wins(80.5%)
Actual result: Mitch Gagnon wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Mitch Gagnon threatens submissions; Walel Watson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Mitch Gagnon has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
- Walel Watson has a 25cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Mitch Gagnon
Red Corner
VS
Walel Watson
Blue Corner
+164
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-174
(64%)
41
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'11"
165.1 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mitch GagnonL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14L
vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16L
vs Cole Smith · May 19Walel WatsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Joseph Sandoval · Oct 11L
vs Yves Jabouin · Dec 11L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Feb 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mitch GagnonMetricWalel Watson
2.76
Strikes / min
2.10
2.21
Strikes absorbed / min
3.79
61%
Strike defense
43%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
0.00
65%
Takedown defense
61%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.55Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap-1.69
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mitch GagnonWalel Watson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Walel Watson(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.1-2.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-157.0157.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Mitch Gagnon
StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8
Walel Watson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights4