Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Modestas Bukauskas won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 6, 2025·Paris, Ile-de-France, France, France
Style matchupModestas Bukauskas: StrikervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas wins(63.1%)
Actual result: Modestas Bukauskas wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Modestas Bukauskas has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Modestas Bukauskas
Red Corner
VS
Paul Craig
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
32
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Modestas Bukauskas
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Vitor Petrino · Nov 23W
SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 24W
KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25W
vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26Paul CraigL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Andre Muniz · Jul 23L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Modestas BukauskasMetricPaul Craig
3.24
Strikes / min
2.50
4.05
Strikes absorbed / min
3.04
50%
Strike defense
43%
0.26
TDs / 15 min
1.43
79%
Takedown defense
35%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Modestas BukauskasPaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+29.9-29.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Modestas Bukauskas
StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20