Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Modestas Bukauskas won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 22, 2025·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas wins(61.2%)
Actual result: Modestas Bukauskas wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Cerqueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Modestas Bukauskas has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Modestas Bukauskas has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Modestas Bukauskas
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Cerqueira
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+225
(31%)
32
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Modestas Bukauskas
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Vitor Petrino · Nov 23W
SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 24W
vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25W
KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26Rafael CerqueiraL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Ibo Aslan · Oct 24L
vs Julius Walker · Aug 25L
SUBvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Modestas BukauskasMetricRafael Cerqueira
3.24
Strikes / min
1.56
4.05
Strikes absorbed / min
5.05
50%
Strike defense
36%
0.26
TDs / 15 min
0.00
79%
Takedown defense
36%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.81Δ 2.68 — meaningful gap-3.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Modestas BukauskasRafael Cerqueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Rafael Cerqueira(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+20.1-20.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+91.0-91.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.5-1.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Modestas Bukauskas
StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12
Rafael Cerqueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4