Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Cerqueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Modestas Bukauskas has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Modestas Bukauskas has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Modestas Bukauskas
oldest →W
SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 24W
vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25W
KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26W
DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26 Rafael CerqueiraL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Julius Walker · Aug 25L
SUBvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Modestas BukauskasMetricRafael Cerqueira
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.81Δ 2.68 — meaningful gap-3.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Modestas BukauskasRafael Cerqueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Rafael Cerqueira(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +97.8|Blue -97.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Modestas BukauskasTargetRafael Cerqueira
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Modestas Bukauskas rounds
Round 1Modestas Bukauskas edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
