Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Mohammed Usman won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 23, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMohammed Usman: Well-roundedvsJake Collier: Pressure fighter
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Mohammed Usman wins(57.1%)
Actual result: Mohammed Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Collier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Mohammed Usman
Red Corner
VS
Jake Collier
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mohammed Usman
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Zac Pauga · Aug 22W
vs Junior Tafa · Apr 23L
vs Mick Parkin · Mar 24L
vs Thomas Petersen · Jul 24W
vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Jun 25Jake CollierL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Carlos Felipe · Jun 21W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22L
KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mohammed UsmanMetricJake Collier
3.85
Strikes / min
5.80
4.27
Strikes absorbed / min
5.08
51%
Strike defense
50%
0.56
TDs / 15 min
0.71
66%
Takedown defense
67%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.42Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mohammed UsmanJake Collier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mohammed Usman(6 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+63.8-63.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.7-1.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Mohammed Usman
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights6
Jake Collier
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights14