Flyweight
3 Rounds
Muhammad Mokaev won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 18, 2023·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupMuhammad Mokaev: WrestlervsJafel Filho: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev wins(69.0%)
Actual result: Muhammad Mokaev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Muhammad Mokaev threatens submissions; Jafel Filho has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Jafel Filho has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Muhammad Mokaev
Red Corner
VS
Jafel Filho
Blue Corner
-850
(89%)
Vegas Odds
+590
(14%)
25
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Muhammad MokaevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Charles Johnson · Jul 22W
SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Oct 22W
SUBvs Tim Elliott · Oct 23W
vs Alex Perez · Mar 24W
vs Manel Kape · Jul 24Jafel Filho
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Daniel Barez · Jul 23W
SUBvs Ode Osbourne · Mar 24L
vs Allan Nascimento · May 25W
SUBvs Clayton Carpenter · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Muhammad MokaevMetricJafel Filho
1.61
Strikes / min
1.78
1.35
Strikes absorbed / min
1.76
57%
Strike defense
50%
5.29
TDs / 15 min
2.40
25%
Takedown defense
50%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Muhammad MokaevJafel Filho
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Muhammad Mokaev(7 fights)Jafel Filho(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+46.0-46.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.249.2
Muhammad Mokaev
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7
Jafel Filho
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5