Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kajan Johnson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 26, 2015·Saitama, Japan, Japan
Model Prediction: Kajan Johnson wins(59.5%)
Actual result: Kajan Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kajan Johnson has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Kajan Johnson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Naoyuki Kotani (53.5%).
- Kajan Johnson has a 23cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Naoyuki Kotani
Red Corner
VS
Kajan Johnson
Blue Corner
+260
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-320
(76%)
44
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
167.64 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Naoyuki KotaniL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Norman Parke · Jul 14L
SUBvs Yan Cabral · Oct 14Kajan JohnsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Zhang Lipeng · May 15W
KOvs Adriano Martins · Sep 17W
vs Stevie Ray · Mar 18L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jul 18L
vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Naoyuki KotaniMetricKajan Johnson
1.02
Strikes / min
2.47
2.89
Strikes absorbed / min
1.59
50%
Strike defense
64%
0.83
TDs / 15 min
1.54
46%
Takedown defense
62%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.87Δ 2.75 — meaningful gap+0.88
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Naoyuki KotaniKajan Johnson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Naoyuki Kotani(3 fights)Kajan Johnson(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-34.334.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+203.0-203.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Naoyuki Kotani
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights3
Kajan Johnson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights7