Lightweight
3 Rounds
Natan Levy won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 3, 2022·Orlando, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupNatan Levy: WrestlervsGenaro Valdez: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Natan Levy wins(71.1%)
Actual result: Natan Levy wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Natan Levy has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Natan Levy (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Natan Levy
Red Corner
VS
Genaro Valdez
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Natan Levy
oldest →latest
L
vs Rafa Garcia · Nov 21W
vs Mike Breeden · Apr 22L
SUBvs Mike Davis · Mar 24Genaro ValdezL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Matt Frevola · Jan 22L
vs Evan Elder · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Natan LevyMetricGenaro Valdez
3.70
Strikes / min
4.08
3.19
Strikes absorbed / min
7.16
58%
Strike defense
48%
5.03
TDs / 15 min
1.54
41%
Takedown defense
36%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.51Δ 3.59 — meaningful gap-3.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Natan LevyGenaro Valdez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Natan Levy(4 fights)Genaro Valdez(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.6-16.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-98.098.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Natan Levy
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4
Genaro Valdez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3