Welterweight
5 Rounds
Conor McGregor won · M-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, August 20, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsConor McGregor: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(59.4%)
Actual result: Conor McGregor wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Conor McGregor has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Conor McGregor has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Nate Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Conor McGregor
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
41
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'9"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Conor McGregorL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Eddie Alvarez · Nov 16L
SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18W
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricConor McGregor
4.57
Strikes / min
5.32
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
4.66
52%
Strike defense
54%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
0.67
41%
Takedown defense
66%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nate DiazConor McGregor
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Conor McGregor(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-28.628.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18
Conor McGregor
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14