Lightweight
3 Rounds
Nate Diaz won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Friday, December 30, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(53.2%)
Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Nate Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
+255
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-280
(74%)
41
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricDonald Cerrone
4.57
Strikes / min
4.41
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
52%
Strike defense
53%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
1.16
41%
Takedown defense
73%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nate DiazDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-58.358.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37