Lightweight
3 Rounds
Josh Thomson won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, April 20, 2013·San Jose, California, USA, USA
Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsJosh Thomson: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(59.0%)
Actual result: Josh Thomson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Josh Thomson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Josh Thomson has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
- Nate Diaz has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Nate Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Josh Thomson
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
41
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Josh ThomsonL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Benson Henderson · Jan 14L
vs Bobby Green · Jul 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Jul 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricJosh Thomson
4.57
Strikes / min
2.59
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
2.12
52%
Strike defense
64%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
1.92
41%
Takedown defense
54%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.47
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nate DiazJosh Thomson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Josh Thomson(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+40.1-40.1
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.947.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18
Josh Thomson
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4