Welterweight
3 Rounds
Nate Diaz won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 28, 2010·Boston, Massachusetts, USA, USA
Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsMarcus Davis: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(69.1%)
Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Marcus Davis has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Marcus Davis has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Nate Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Nate Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Marcus Davis
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
41
Age
52
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Marcus Davis
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jonathan Goulet · May 10L
KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Jan 11Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricMarcus Davis
4.57
Strikes / min
2.72
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
52%
Strike defense
65%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
1.60
41%
Takedown defense
47%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nate DiazMarcus Davis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Marcus Davis(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18
Marcus Davis
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3