Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rory MacDonald won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 30, 2011·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsRory MacDonald: Elusive striker
The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.
Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(64.8%)
Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rory MacDonald has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rory MacDonald has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Nate Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Rory MacDonald
Blue Corner
+127
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-137
(58%)
41
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricRory MacDonald
4.57
Strikes / min
3.75
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
52%
Strike defense
62%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
1.77
41%
Takedown defense
88%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nate DiazRory MacDonald
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Rory MacDonald(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+36.0-36.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-203.0203.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18
Rory MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12