Welterweight
3 Rounds
Nate Diaz won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 27, 2010·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(72.3%)
Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Diaz has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
- Nate Diaz has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Nate Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Rory Markham
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
41
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Rory MarkhamNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricRory Markham
4.57
Strikes / min
1.98
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
10.27
52%
Strike defense
45%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
0.00
41%
Takedown defense
0%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80Δ 9.09 — meaningful gap-8.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nate DiazRory Markham
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Rory Markham(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18
Rory Markham
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights1