Lightweight
3 Rounds
Nate Diaz won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 24, 2011·Denver, Colorado, USA, USA
Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsTakanori Gomi: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(74.2%)
Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Takanori Gomi enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Takanori Gomi has lost 44% of fights by sub.
- Takanori Gomi has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Nate Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Nate Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Takanori Gomi
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
41
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'7"
193.04 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Takanori GomiL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Myles Jury · Sep 14L
KOvs Joe Lauzon · Jul 15L
KOvs Jim Miller · Jul 16L
SUBvs Jon Tuck · Jun 17L
KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Sep 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricTakanori Gomi
4.57
Strikes / min
3.81
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
3.52
52%
Strike defense
60%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
1.23
41%
Takedown defense
63%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nate DiazTakanori Gomi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Takanori Gomi(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+13.7-13.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-119.0119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18
Takanori Gomi
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13