Welterweight
5 Rounds
Nate Diaz won · SUB R4
UFC Event·Saturday, September 10, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupNate Diaz: Submission grapplervsTony Ferguson: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(56.1%)
Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Tony Ferguson has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Nate Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Tony Ferguson
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
41
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate DiazL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Beneil Dariush · May 21L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricTony Ferguson
4.57
Strikes / min
4.91
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
4.37
52%
Strike defense
55%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
0.39
41%
Takedown defense
66%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nate DiazTony Ferguson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-90.990.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+329.0-329.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24